Flip in the odds, flip in the match?

Two fairly similar profiles but totally opposite dynamics, so flip or slight advantage for one of the two...?

Very good 2023 season for Thompson, he has regained a lot of confidence in the challenger and it is paying off! Here he is back at a good level on the main circuit and the results follow, a bit like a Struff who did much the same thing. A semi-final in challenger then a final in Hertogenbosh in 250, his season on grass is good even if his defeat in Mallorca was disappointing, a little relaxation before attacking Wimbledon I think. His serve is very well regulated, he slams a lot of aces and that should still be the case against a player who concedes a lot. Nakashima is in trouble this season, this year if we take away his good tournament in Lyon he has never chained 2 victories in a row, it is very representative of the bad period he is going through. He had a good Wimbledon 2022 losing against Kyrgios in the 1/8th final, an excellent result but he arrived with good results and another dynamic. I'm more worried about him this time given what he shows and I wouldn't be surprised to see him jump on the first lap.