Woe to the vanquished!
It's already the last chance match (or almost) for both..
Match conditions : Center Court, fast indoor hard, 2:30 p.m.
H2H: Only one confrontation but it was an exhibition, we will not take it into account!
State of form: Alcaraz is in trouble at the end of the season, we feel tired in the head but he will not give up. Bad choices and a lack of lucidity that we didn't know about, a little rest would do him good. Rublev, for his part, finished the season strong with 11 victories in his last 15 matches and the feeling that he still has juice.
Comfort in the tournament : First participation for Alcaraz, who lost his first group match against Zverev yesterday. Rublev is in 1v/3d in this tournament and also lost his first group match.
Strengths weaknesses: Carlitos can do a little bit of everything and I'm going to focus instead on his few weaknesses which stand out at the end of the season. We feel he is less lucid in his choices and he makes many more direct (and gross) errors than before. His second kicked ball is a force in general but indoors this shot becomes neutral. Rublev sends stumps on every ball and can keep up the pace against anyone, physically he's tough but in the head that's often where he's takeable.
Match up: 1st confrontation so we have to speculate but I see an intense match with a crazy pace, Rublev will dictate the game when he has the opportunity and I can see Alcaraz trying to calm the game down a little with his backhand slice that he uses it well depending on his opponents. The Spaniard's ground coverage can make the difference given Rublev's difficulties in finishing points at the net.
Possible scenario : Rublev's poor management of emotions could cost him dearly in a match like this with a lot at stake, we know that he is tense and puts enormous pressure on himself all the time. It's practically the last chance match for both and the defeat will likely be eliminatory. The problem is that Alcaraz didn't reassure me at all in the first round and even if he was present in the fight I didn't find him as flamboyant as usual, visually I feel him so tired ..
Personal opinion : Rublev comes out of an unplayable match up and he knew it, it couldn't be worse tomorrow and given his level over the last few weeks I think he can seriously come and move Carlitos, the Spaniard remains the favorite but be careful not to not see him looking too good at the end of the season.
Bets to consider : Rublev +1.5 sets @ 1.60, Rublev win @ 2.54, over 2.5 sets @2.54, all HA
