Why is Tiafoe such an outsider?

4-3 for Tsitsi, Tiafoe at home... Does that deserve odds of 3.24 equivalent to around a 30% chance of winning?

This is a rhetorical question on my part of course. And then by digging a little, I also realize that Tsitsi is not having such a bad season. It's mainly the fact that we've been expecting a lot from him for some time + the effect of the media, but if we look at his defeats this year: De Minaur, Ruud, Fritz, Zverev. The two protagonists had the perfect match to get into the swing of things. Match at the end of which the American declared: "we always had huge fights with Stefanos. I often played well against him, can't wait for it to start and for the best to win." Also, it can be a double-edged sword, but from memory, Tiafoe often plays a little better when he is on his home turf, and he had an excellent Indian Wells last season. On the Greek side, everything is going pretty well in my opinion. His match against Pouille could not have served him better as a start. Excellent on the return, good performance on his backhand and always as dashing on his take-off followed by very aggressive forehands. I don't yet know on which court they play or at what time but it all feels central, so a slightly faster surface but with more distance. I still expect a good battle depending on how rigorously the American will be able to hold his service games and find the Greek's inflection point.