A Fiery Showdown

On paper, this has the potential to be a very exciting match!

Fokina has been playing amazing tennis lately, coming off a really good run in Washington to the finals (where he should've won) and making it three rounds into Toronto in a close match against Rublev before he had to retire due to fatigue. Despite him being quite worn out from all the tennis he had played, he fought well against a very good Rublev. Rublev was the better player in the match, but Fokina almost managed to win in straight sets by being clutch at the key moments, something we usually don't see from him ;) Fonseca had a very bad performance against Schoolkate in Toronto and started off slowly in his last match against Bu in Cincinnati, dropping the first set. As the match progressed, he began to look a lot better and more comfortable, and despite the somewhat tight scoreline, he was a very worthy winner.

Actually, this match between Fokina and Fonseca is very similar to the one Fokina just played against Rublev! Fonseca and Rublev are both powerful Attacking Baseliners whose strength lies in their overpowering baseline game, and their weakness is the lack of variety and a backup plan. Indeed, I find both Fonseca and Rublev to be very poor at problem-solving when the plan of "bash the ball" does not work... we could see this very clearly in Fonseca's match against Draper, he looked totally helpless out there! Additionally, Rublev played really well against Fokina, and although Fonseca has a huge ceiling, he is not currently playing at the same level lately. This matchup can be troublesome for both players... Fokina is a fantastic returner, and being able to neutralize his first serve as well as attack his second serve could spell trouble for Fonseca, as it will not allow him to regularly start on the front foot and dictate from the baseline, which he will need to do. Fokina also has the movement to prolong rallies and make Fonseca spray errors. On the other hand, Fokina does not play with the same aggression as Schoolkate/Jarry did (two recent Fonseca losses), and that gives Fonseca the chance to impose his game more. As an example of Fonseca playing against great movers, he did face ADM in Miami and Paul in Madrid. Despite losing both matches, he was very competitive, which is a good sign for me as well. I have slight concerns that Fonseca prefers the Australian/Sunshine Double (IW & Miami) balls and conditions over the ones they are currently playing with, the Wilson US Open balls, which are "flying and harder to control." I base this on the premise that he has yet to show a truly impressive match in these conditions, whereas he has had multiple good matches already in other hard-court conditions. We have to bring up the fact that Fokina has been playing very well for a while now and is having a great season, but there is a slight worry for me that all the matches he has played this year (despite the 6~ days of rest he got from Toronto) will catch up to him. If that is the case, Fonseca has the kind of heavy game to take advantage of that, similarly to what Rublev did...