4th meeting in a row in the final

And the first on hard! While Carlito readily admits that the Italian is the best in the world on this surface, and even on all others, a tennis match remains a tennis match...

And then we remember their last finals... Rome, Roland, Wim... Rome was special for Jannik, then he had his match points at Roland, then he won 3 sets to 1 at Wim. The Italian says the margins were small at Wim. That he hit a few lines that Carlito hit at Roland. In short, luck was on his side. The truth is that we feel that Jannik has taken over, no matter the surface now. I think his game has progressed in the sense that it is no longer as monolithic as before, but he has kept his power. Let me explain. Jannik is a steamroller. His game is about taking control of the rally as quickly as possible and smothering you with power and aggression. He does that better than anyone. Except that, if another player has a similar game, he destroys it (RIP Felix). Against Carlito, this game didn't work as well (same this week we saw against Mannarino, a bit of Atmane, Bublik on grass...), because the Spaniard has the mobility needed to respond a little more to his attacks, but above all he varies a lot and increases his level of focus against him. Except that now, Jannik also varies. A little. But well. More and more moves to the net, drop shots. And at the same time, he's still just as aggressive, if not more so. Starting with the return. Carlos after Wim's final "he returned my seconds really well to be in an attacking position on the next ball. It's very difficult to maneuver when you feel like you have to defend all the time." We also sensed a resigned Carlito in this final, which he lost well before the end of the match. The Spaniard knows that his service quality will be essential to him. Just like his return quality. In fact, all these first shots that don't allow Jannik to directly take the upper hand on the point. If, however, the Spaniard has trouble, he will have to return the point either with a huge forehand, or cut the rhythm with a slice and not get into an ego battle of the one who hits the hardest. There is also an opportunity for Carlito over the entire match: the conditions. He seems to withstand the heat much better than Jannik. Perhaps the opportunity to take a little more of the upper hand in terms of aggression. A match therefore, not so 65 / 35 for Jannik, but more like 58 / 42 I think. Oh, and yes, this is not the first final on hard court between the two men. Remember that legendary decisive tie-break in Beijing in 2024 where Carlito, then trailing 3 to 0 I think, had chained 7 points in a row with almost only winners. Just because this guy is special, he's not worth 2.6 to me...