A Disaster Averted

Botic played one of the worst opening sets of tennis I have ever seen, yet here he is!

Well, it didn't exactly start well for Botic in his night match against Baez. He ended up giving himself a bagel (0-6) in the first set, with his FH unable to find the court at any point... he ended up losing the first set in 24 minutes with 0 winners and 17 unforced errors from his forehand... those are crazy numbers! He was not feeling the ball at all, and after changing rackets and resetting, he was able to play better and take set 2 easily with a 6-1 scoreline (talk about crazy swings in this match). Set 3 was a bit better (at least compared to the first two sets), and Botic had to hold from 0-40 on his own serve in the first game. He managed to pull out a 6-4 win in the deciding set, and although the level of tennis was not good, it was clear that the conditions were very tough, based on the way Baez also struggled. It wasn't pretty, but at least we saw some strength from Botic in being able to turn the match around. He had also played his previous matches earlier in the day, and conditions tend to differ greatly between day and night here, so we have to keep that in mind. Bu went up against Navone and, despite posting a worse UE/W ratio (12/29 vs. 18/28), he won in straight sets, 6-4, 6-4. There were a few factors that contributed to this result: being more comfortable on hard courts and knowing how to construct points more effectively. The ability to serve & volley and attack the net in general (8/9 net points won). He was able to use this to his advantage, cause Navone was the one winning the regular rallies from the baseline. Apart from that, he was very clutch with some great first serves in pressure situations and 6/7 BPs saved compared to 6/9 for Navone.

So, Bu and Botic will face off tonight as the last match scheduled... so we can expect tricky conditions again. Both players have already experienced playing at this time and on centre court, since Bu faced Tsitsipas in the same settings earlier. Botic was struggling hard to hit through Baez at the start (he couldn't), and while Bu is another player who is a solid defender, he is not at the same level as Baez in that regard. I think the fact that Bu is a bit more "balanced" will benefit Botic, he won't be overly bothered by Bu's more aggressive returning and better serving - I think he prefers it over facing someone like Baez, who can become a WALL and extract a lot of errors. We must acknowledge that Bu has definitely been performing better in late evening/night conditions, and he has been playing matches very well tactically, remaining very solid against Tsitsipas and heavily pressuring him with aggressive returning. Being able to hang decently in rallies with Navone before using his net game to his advantage. However, Botic does not have any obvious weaknesses for Bu to target, unlike the other two. There is a chance that he may self-destruct, but we must not disregard the excellent level he displayed in the matches prior to the one against Baez. I would have Botic as the favorite here. He has the firepower to cause problems for Bu, and the fact that Bu is balanced and solid, rather than having some very strong specific attributes (like Baez's WALL-mode), I think that plays into Botic's hands.