A Question of Motivation

Tallon had a chance to bounce back in a revenge match against Fucsovics...

And it's safe to say that he did not take this opportunity. After a very bad post-Wimbledon run, facing a player who beat him three times in a row (and thus officially known as his "daddy"), you would expect a fired-up Griekspoor! However, the opposite was what happened... he came out sluggish, and I would say he was very lazy in the match, not willing to dig deep, but instead opting for all-out offense. I'm not sure if he is unfit in some way, but I find his movement to be especially bad right now (I know it's never been his strongest attribute). It was evident anytime he had to move on a slice serve (was too slow and mishit the return, over and over), as well as when he had to move around the court, whether it was toward the net or laterally. Due to his recent form and loss of confidence, he is also losing some of the "clutch magic" that has been very useful to him for a while now, which allowed him to save a significant number of breakpoints. I was expecting a better performance in Winston-Salem, considering all things, and this worries me for his chances at USO. For Mannarino, we can say the opposite is pretty much true. I found him to be really good in Cincinnati, with several strong wins and even putting up a good fight against Sinner. I find it quite challenging to gauge Mannarino in the first round of a new tournament, as his level can vary significantly from one tournament to another.

Under normal circumstances, I would say that Griekspoor's profile (Big Server / Attacking Baseliner) troubles Mannarino. However, given Griekspoor's current form, I like his chances a lot more. Mannarino was serving and returning really well in his last matches, and once the rallies start, it feels like Tallon will suffer. If Griekspoor has to do too much defending and running, I don't like his chances at all, not in his current state. Most likely, we will see a very aggressive and attacking Tallon, looking to end points quickly. And that's what this matchup will come down to: how well Tallon will be able to execute his attacking game. Without having seen any odds yet, I imagine the value will be on Mannarino's side. Griekspoor might have lost a lot of matches in a row, but he had some "built-up credit" from his good start to the year. There might just be enough credit in the market for him to create some value on Mannarino... yes, I'm really not high on this version of Griekspoor!