Which version of Shapovalov do we get?
A question we have to ask ourselves ahead of every tournament he appears in...
Let's quickly recap Denis's last three hardcourt tournaments. A complete cruise to an ATP 250 title in Los Cabos against very weak opponents. Losing to Tien in straight sets in the first round at home despite serving for both sets. Eliminated in the first round against LL Nardi in three sets in Cincinnati, struggling with the heat. Highs and lows. Fucsovics decided not to play any hard-court tournaments besides Winston-Salem (he got married), and it definitely paid off. He won the title on Saturday after a fantastic run, just dropping a single set to Griekspoor along the way. In his post-match interview, he was visibly emotional and "ready to push back into the top 50", noting how the honeymoon would have to wait until the end of the season!
Shapovalov and Fucsovics are familiar with each other, having faced off four times already, with the victories split evenly. Their matches have been battles, with deciding sets in all three of the best-of-three ones and four sets in the Grand Slam match. Fucsovics tends to play solid tennis, being hard to hit through while being solid from both wings. He has a good first serve, the ability to go down the line with his backhand, and the ability to shorten points at the net. I find him quite strong mentally; he is a fighter and surely will be filled with confidence after a strong run to the title in Winston-Salem. Something to note is that most of his opponents were players who were more defensive-minded, with deep court positioning, and he was able to take advantage of this. We would have seen better how he does against an attacking player in his semifinal against Korda, but he got a walkover instead. He did play against Griekspoor, but it's hard to take too much from this. Tallon was really bad (and was still the only one to win a set against Fucsovics). Because yes, he will face a very offensive player in Shapovalov! I prefer Fucsovics against less attacking players; he excels at doing what he did in Winston-Salem —remaining solid and utilizing his usually superior serve and firepower to win. As for Shapovalov, the matchup is decent. He should be able to execute his game decently here. We know he is very dependent on conditions (that's why he thrives indoors), but the forecast looks good for him at least - with less wind and no extreme heat. I can see another battle here; I'm not too worried about Fucsovics physically. Expect Fucsovics to come in with a lot of confidence against a Shapovalov (whom he has played and beaten before). For Shapovalov, the conditions should enable him to have moments where he plays the great tennis he is capable of; however, his lack of form and confidence (combined with his playstyle) could mean we see a lot of highs and lows during this match from him...


