Welcome to the Bublik Show

His recent night-session match against Paul was "absolute cinema", will this one deliver as well...?

Despite a tight scoreline against Paul, I think it's fair to say that Bublik was in control for most of the match. I thought Paul played quite a good match; he was serving well and absolutely firing from the baseline. Bublik was serving well and was great when it really mattered, coming up with ridiculous shots at key moments. One of the biggest factors in this match was the drop shot, which Bublik won 28/38 points with. More importantly, it really tested Paul's legs, and you could see the toll it took on him as the match progressed, especially given his exhausting match against Borges. I would say this match tested Bublik, as he faced an opponent with a dominant head-to-head record against him, and a crowd that was particularly disruptive, shouting loudly during points and on serve. I was expecting him to have some kind of reaction; it would have been totally justified, but he didn't react negatively at all, impressive! Sinner struggled a bit initially in his match due to a combination of poor serving and a strong Shapovalov, and was not too far away from going down a double break in the third set. However, he managed to step into another gear after holding his serve and dominated for the rest of the match.

We've had two recent meetings between Sinner and Bublik, in RG and Halle. When they met in RG, Bublik was coming off an emotional win against Draper in the round prior. He came out a bit flat, and Sinner took full advantage of that. For their meeting in Halle shortly after (Bublik's best conditions, indoor grass), Bublik managed to get some revenge from a set down. He was serving incredibly and managed to break Sinner with a crazy return game where he was painting lines with return winners. It's worth noting that he caught Sinner at a good moment here: 10 days after his brutal RG loss to Alcaraz, and with Sinner not being as accustomed to grass as Bublik.

Bublik does have the kind of playstyle that can bother Sinner, and his form heading into this match could not really be better. He is on a massive win streak and has not even been broken yet in USO, saving an incredible 12/12 breakpoints. He is really in the zone and no longer having his outbursts; life is good. Something that Bublik could really benefit from in this match would be the thing that was against him against Paul - the crowd. If he can get the crowd really involved and create some drama, that's perhaps the best weapon against Sinner (Tiafoe did it to him in Vienna a few years ago, and Rune did it in Monte Carlo). He is obviously serving great, and even if he is facing one of the best, if not the best, returner in the world, he can go into serving streaks where he is unbreakable. And he always has a chance to get a "random break" with his high-risk return game. OK, now for a few things that I think will be tough for him... He pretty much hit every drop shot against Paul and barely missed any. It's really hard to sustain that level. Sinner tends to take over the baseline, and with his pace and returning ability, it is much harder to find opportunities to pull off drop shots. I'm also slightly worried that he is unable to sustain the level of breakpoints saved; it can't continue indefinitely. Having said all this, we have an idea what kind of odds we will get in a Sinner match where he is not facing Alcaraz. So yes, we don't need Bublik to win, just play well enough to exceed expectations... ;)