Alcaraz v2.0?

Five matches in a row without dropping a set...

Sure, Carlos has been a huge favorite in all his matches... but we are so accustomed to him prolonging even those matches as he advances deeper into tournaments. Well, not this time. Opelka, Bellucci, Darderi, Rinderknech, and Lehecka. Four out of five of those players are unable to defend well on hardcourts, so once he got them moving, they stood no chance as long as he took care of his own serve... and that part he has been doing great! Ever since he played his first match against Opelka, we could feel that Alcaraz was really "locked in", aiming to have similar efficiency in the "easy matches" as his main rival, Sinner. As for Djokovic, the same can not be said! As usual, his first matches in a Grand Slam tend to be quite filled with drama. We see periods where Djokovic is struggling physically and with his game. For the untrained eye, it might even look like there might be a shock elimination on the cards... until he comes back and completely takes over the match again. He turned on a switch against a comfortable opponent in Struff and while Fritz was a bit more challenging, it was another match that he won fair and square in four sets.

This is a matchup which Alcaraz has struggled with, especially on faster surfaces (which was very visible in the ATP Finals in 2023). Alcaraz is not an easy match for anyone on tour but for Djokovic, it's a matchup he heavily prefers instead of the one against Jannik. Why is that? Well, against Alcaraz, he can extract some errors and rush him at times... where as against Sinner he don't have a lot of options since Sinner plays similar to himself but does it faster and better. So, what about this "new version" of Alcaraz we are seeing... that is being a lot more efficient and not making as many mistakes? Well, that's surely not good news for Djokovic... if Carlos can maintain playing this way against him. There's a big difference doing it against Rinderknech and Lehecka, compared to against someone like Novak. The match will be played during the day in "normal" weather conditions, similar to what we have had the entire two weeks. Djokovic would've prefered the evening conditions, so that's a small plus for Carlos... he can test Djokovic's fitness a bit more now. And I do worry a bit for Djokovic here, based on his performance against Fritz. He had to fend off a lot of breakpoints against a Fritz that was not at his best and in a very favourable matchup, where he could heavily exploit his movement and lack of variety. And now he has to face someone who moves a lot better, has a lot more variety and is serving better than before. However, there is always the possibility that Djokovic goes up another gear, he is very good at doing that. We've seen him do it a lot in the big moments, one of the most memorable ones being last year in the Olympics against Carlos. At the same time, can we count on that happening with a 100% certainity? There comes a time where the opponent is just so strong (like Sinner) that it begins to feel insurmountable - especially with Father Time having his say. Can Novak still offer Alcaraz a great challenge? Will Carlos be able to keep his "new composure" if he struggles early on? Alcaraz has been beaten already by the "old man" this year in Australia and as mentioned, in the Olympics last year. Can he maintain a more balanced and efficient level of play to not allow Djokovic to capitalize on his dips in level? As you can see, there are many question and possibilities! Now, let's look at the odds to figure out which one we want to believe in...