Rublev's Revenge Rematch
Cobolli beat Rublev 6-2, 6-4 in the Hamburg final this year... can Andrey settle the score now?
Well, on paper, it's a good chance for Rublev. Cobolli is coming from a good time at the Laver Cup (despite a pretty poor performance in a 6-4, 6-3 loss to Fonseca). As so many other players who participated in the Laver Cup, the fun is now over, and a jet-lagged reality is now a real possibility! With Flavio, it feels like the same question is being asked over and over... Is he fatigued yet? And so many times when you are concerned for his fatigue levels, he shows up with a good performance... over and over. Expect for a few select times, like against Tiafoe in Washington. He's had an absolutely incredible season, and we once again have to ask the question - can he sustain this all the way through this year? As for Rublev, we saw some hopeful glimpses of the old Rublev in Toronto and Cincinnati with some great performances (losses to Fritz and Alcaraz, no shame). In the USO, he looked a bit more shaky, dropping a set to Boyer and going five against a (good) Wong... before losing in straight sets to a good FAA. So yes, he was facing players who were playing well; we'll give him that. However, it must be noted that Rublev has become significantly more beatable by non-elite players than he used to be (similar to Medvedev to some extent). Yeah, first-round straight set loss to a good Royer in Hangzhou, even more confirming evidence.
When they faced off in Hamburg, it was not even competitive. Cobolli was all over him in every aspect, completely dictating with his FH (Rublev did take a MTO in the second set, not sure if he was feeling anything). This match is largely about who can impose themselves and dictate with their forehand, as both players are really good at it. I would say it's especially important for Rublev; that's crucial for his game. When he needs to defend too much, it's not good. This also means that if someone's energy is off and they come out flat, they're in big trouble (that's what happened to Rublev in Hamburg). As with many other matches featuring a player from the Laver Cup, it becomes a bit tricky since you have to guess quite a lot about how well they handle the travel... From a motivational perspective, we'll give Rublev an edge, for sure. I'm sure he wants to achieve more this season and also get some sort of revenge for that beatdown he received. Nonetheless, matches are not won solely by who is the most motivated ;) Can he bring the heavy weaponry and do what Fonseca just did to Cobolli?
