The Big Question

How will Cerundolo handle the transition from Europe to the US to Asia?

Yes, that is the main question for me. Cause Cerundolo has pretty much done a "Rune", which is: playing Davis Cup in Europe, then the Laver Cup in the US, and then going to China. At least he won in Davis Cup and was part of the winning Team World in Laver Cup ;) His match against Botic in the Netherlands was played on a slow indoor hard court, and the same conditions applied to the Laver Cup. Those are great conditions for Cerundolo, as he has good rally tolerance and a huge forehand to finish points, even on very slow courts (Beijing is also known for its slow conditions). Tien has played three matches in Hangzhou, and despite two wins, I would say I find him quite... average. It's true that he did end up losing to a very good Royer, but I wasn't too impressed by him in his opening round against Navone either. I find him to be more erratic than usual, quite bad in pressure moments, and against physical players, he tends to fold in long rallies with a "resigned" shot into the net, usually. Don't get me wrong, he is not playing horribly by any means. I just think he is not in his best form right now, and yes, he is quite passive.

As for the matchup, I want to say that it favors Cerundolo in these conditions. The big difference maker for me is that he has the ability to finish points much more easily, and I can see him taking control of the match since his forehand is his biggest weapon on court, and Tien lacks weapons, especially when the game plays slowly. So, yes, Tien will have to focus on really building the points (which he is good at), but Cerundolo is a good mover as well, so that's a problem. Even though Tien is a better hardcourt player than Navone, he struggles in that kind of matchup against physical players who can extend rallies and not open themselves up to finish blows by Tien. However, there is, of course, one thing that can completely alter the outcome of this match - Cerundolo being jet-lagged. We know that Cerundolo has periods where his game is not "clicking", and then he starts getting into his own head, becoming frustrated and annoyed with poor body language! If the matchup is favorable, I would look to oppose players coming from the Laver Cup with a short turnaround. However, in this case, we have a matchup I don't like. Well, let's have a look at the odds, shall we?