Endless Energy

Cobolli was supposed to show some sign of fatigue...

A season filled with long battles and flying from the US, against Rublev, who had already played in China and was "settled". Additionally, Rublev had some extra motivation since he got absolutely destroyed by Cobolli in the Hamburg final. And sure, Cobolli started the first few games a bit slow, but after a brilliant return game to break back with Rublev serving for the set, he was unstoppable. I found him to be really good in the match, and I also find him very solid in most areas; there aren't many weaknesses to his game. You can also tell that he is very confident; he tends to play really well and fearlessly in high-pressure moments. As for Tien, he might not be as intense or loud, but he is working his way through the ranks, silently. I found his match today against Cerundolo quite good, and it seems like that's why I keep repeating every time I have Tien in my preview... "good", but not so often "exceptional". It makes sense given his solid game, and perhaps it's the fact that his solid game extracts errors from his opponents that makes it look like they are the ones playing badly. I will say, though, I found Cerundolo extremely erratic today, and not only because of Tien. He did a good job of targeting his backhand, but there were some absolutely wild errors (more than usual) and a lack of focus and willingness to dig deep cost him the match...

I like Cobolli's chances a lot more against Tien. While his forehand might not be as heavy as Cerundolo's, I find it more reliable. Also, his backhand is not as prone to unforced errors, and with 24 BH UE's from Dolo, we can tell that it's important against a left-hander! Besides that, there is one thing that I find really important, and that's being able to fight through Tien; you can't get frustrated and start overhitting (looking at you, Dolo). I trust Flavio a lot more in this department, not only because of his actions on the court, but also from his quite detailed and interesting post-match comments (he mentioned how he really likes this tournament and that he prefers this kind of tournament instead of the drawn-out Masters 1000). For the matchup, Cobolli has the court coverage, patience, and energy to hang with Tien (a bit similar to Navone, which Tien struggles with - even on hardcourt). However, Cobolli's a way better hardcourt player than Navone. His forehand is the biggest weapon on the court, and these slow-medium courts make him really hard to hit through. Tien is great at constructing points, but on slower courts like these against a good mover, it becomes hard if you lack finishing power, and I still think he does...