Paolini, the value bet of the day?

Anismova favorite according to the books but...

... I only half agree!

Admittedly, both players are in exemplary form, with an almost identical 2025 winrate on hard courts (about 22 wins in 30 matches). They have never faced each other on the blue surface.

Our Italian also benefits from quite incredible accuracy, regularly finding the lines since the BJK Cup she won with her team. She looks untouchable while remaining remarkably solid. You see her chase every ball, cover maximum court, and play with complete confidence. A rock-steady mentality, confirmed by a swift victory (1h07) against her bogey Sofia Kenin, whom she hadn't beaten since... 2019!

Amanda, for her part, spent more time on court in Beijing and used a lot of energy against Muchova, but she again proved she is one of the best returners on tour, even against an excellent server. The American will absolutely need to control her first serve and keep the Italian at distance, because she will be constantly challenged in counterplay and rallies, especially on a slower surface. Paolini can quickly gain the upper hand if Amanda has lapses like in her previous matches here.

All of this makes me think we're closer to a true coin flip.