Going in Opposite Directions?

Rublev is once again struggling, while Nishioka could possibly be regaining some form...?

Rublev had a great chance for revenge against a jet-lagged Cobolli, but failed to capitalize... even losing in straight sets. Broken while serving for the first set (Cobolli did return well in that game), and then it kind of just spiraled out of control. Rublev's intensity and relentless aggression are key to him for winning matches, but it's becoming harder and harder these days... even against some players he would have never lost to before. So, what's the reason for this? I think it's a combination of two factors: Rublev is getting older (and slower) while the rest of the tour has adjusted much more to this fast-paced game, since that's where tennis is heading right now (just look at Sinner). Most players can hit big these days, so Rublev's forehand is not as standout as it used to be (Cobolli's FH against Rublev's is a good comparison). Rublev can still have really good weeks, but he is now relying more on reaching a "peak level" compared to having a high floor where he would beat most players. Nishioka came through the qualifiers very nicely and just had a dominant win against Shevchenko in his first round. I find him quite impressive in these conditions; the medium speed with the high-ish bounce works well for his game. He can construct points while not getting overwhelmed by the opponent's pace as he would on faster hardcourts... His ability to go down/up the line from both wings is a great asset that will keep his opponents honest when it comes to their positioning. Nishioka is someone who is quite streaky; either he tends to play really well or has matches where things are not going his way, and he ends up at least semi-tanking them while being moody.

Rublev and Nishioka have faced four times on hardcourt, both having won two times each. All the matches have been won in straight sets, which suggests that the player who is better on the day tends to "take over" the match, since they have very different playstyles... either Rublev blasts him off the court or Nishioka can handle it, and Rublev has nothing additional to offer. We should always be wary of relying too much on H2H, but I feel that it's quite relevant here since we have two players in the same age range with playstyles that remain unchanged. Shevchenko really struggled to contain himself against Nishioka, pulling the trigger at the wrong times, over and over. It was a short match, but it was quite visible how exhausting it was for Shevchenko to chase after balls from a dictating Nishioka in this humid heat. For this part, we can trust Rublev more... his fitness is better, but we could still see him pulling the trigger too early. I think you can see where I'm going with this ;)