Big Gio almost pulls it off again?

Having come very close to knocking out Fritz at Wimbledon this season, Mpetshi would like to go all the way this time.

There’s a world of difference between wanting and being able to! I’m having a hard time trusting Mpetshi right now; beyond the serve it’s really not good at all this year, he seems even more dependent than before, and he’s known on tour now—I think his opponents are better prepared. Big red flag for me when he’s the favorite; I don’t see much value, and even in his win over Nardi I found him a bit just-enough, even though he wasn’t really under threat in the end. At that same level against Fritz, he’ll go out. Yet the American is beatable; he keeps dropping little sets here and there and often gets through on experience, I’d say. After his thigh injury in the Tokyo final, we wondered how he’d recover, and apparently it was better than expected even if he can still feel his leg. Nothing to worry about, I think—it’s more in the play and with the matches piling up that he’s likelier to look less dominant than usual; he might be a bit less precise or clear-headed on important points, for example. Those are my only arguments against him because otherwise everything else tilts his way: his serve is more stable than Mpetshi’s and he’s better from the baseline. Barring a disaster he should get it done—but in a tight match, right?