Dramatic scenario

During their showdown in Beijing last week, they fought a remarkable battle, and in the end Medvedev retired because he was cramping all over!

The conditions were already tough last week, but in this tournament it’s even more brutal—bodies are being pushed to the limit, and it’s often the one who doesn’t break down physically who wins. Daniil is particularly affected, he’s hurting a lot, but damn, is he playing well again! It’s night and day compared to the start of his season—he’s getting his confidence back and you can feel it. He played an excellent match against Fokina, though there’s still that little issue finishing matches; this time there were no nasty surprises. In terms of play, he’s regained his legendary solidity, and on top of that he’s added the aggressiveness he was missing—he’s playing faster and making fewer errors. That’s vintage Daniil. Physically, though, he’ll need to be monitored every match. Against Svrcina he looked spent even though it was a quick one, and at the end of his match against Foki he took a moment on the bench to recover, clearly at his limit—I think a third set could have been fatal for him. But does Tien have the physical engine to beat Daniil on that front? The American keeps winning long, grueling matches, and he hasn’t even had time to catch his breath after his final in Beijing. That said, he doesn’t seem tired at all—I didn’t see a single negative sign from him in the previous round, and I maintain that at 19, when you’re playing the tennis of your life, it’s easier to string matches together. So yes, if this one goes to three sets, I make him the favorite. But you still have to get there—last week Medvedev served for the match and could have wrapped it up in two sets. Then again, Tien was also up a break in the first, so there were plenty of swings! In the match-up, Tien doesn’t shy away from baseline battles; he makes Daniil work and even cracks him at times. That forces the Russian to keep raising the bar, and even though he’s playing great right now, he’s almost forced to play a near-perfect match on his side, because dropping even a single set could cost him dearly!