The defending champion!

Mr. Agut surprised everyone in this tournament last year with a crazy run—can he replicate the feat this year?

He was locked in, old man Bautista, last year; his week was perfect from start to finish with only one set dropped against FAA. With his crafty game and low balls he’ll be a threat again this year, but unfortunately he’s not coming in under good conditions at all. He hasn’t played since the US Open; there he took an MTO for a leg issue, but I have absolutely no info—I just know he pulled out of the three tournaments in Asia without citing his injury. In my opinion it’s serious because he skipped big tournaments. The upside is that if he stayed in Europe he should have prepared well for this tournament; he must have been training indoors for quite a few days (if his body allows). His title defense will start with a tricky match against Baez. Tricky because Baez can be super annoying to play when he’s feeling good. I found him really good in Shanghai, but that’s a Masters 1000 and he only beat Zhang before losing to Rune—it’s not exceptional either, and the context here is different. A small indoor tournament at the end of the season isn’t what excites him, far from it; we know some players struggle to finish this long season indoors, especially profiles like Baez who prefer to play outdoors and on clay. It’s going to depend a lot on his motivation and how much he wants to push himself. It’s the first time these two have met, and indoors Agut’s flat strikes and his game smarts on a quick surface should normally let him handle Baez. On the other hand, the Argentine currently has more legs under him and offers physical guarantees; if he’s into the match and it turns into a three-hour grind, then he’s my favorite.