Another remake

Feels like we’ve got a lot of rematches lately!

Another rematch we should be wary of: Bonzi beat Opelka in Shanghai and they’re meeting again right away in this tournament, which isn’t straightforward—especially for the one who won the last match. Bonzi really controlled Opelka by adjusting to the American’s game; he said he deliberately stood farther behind the baseline to buy himself time, and the aim was mainly to return deep and make him play. He pulled it off superbly and will have to do the same here, but I have some doubts. Indoors is much better for Opelka given his serve, and there’s also less space to retreat than in Shanghai at this event, so it’s not easy to stand that far back. Another positive for Opelka is that the weather in Shanghai was working against him—he was struggling—and this time there shouldn’t be any issue, which shakes things up a bit in my view. There’s also the fact that the odds have adjusted since their last match: Opelka was at 1.77 and now he’s the underdog at 2! Enough to trust him because of that? I’m not convinced. Bonzi didn’t play badly in China; he says he feels great, and we know how strong he can finish the year indoors. In terms of motivation and desire, he’s well ahead of Opelka, that’s for sure. Some Americans struggle to finish the season every year, and maybe Opelka will be the same; in any case, he’ll need to find a bit more balance in his game to get through it.