The hardest part is still to come.

Beating Fonseca is almost easier than beating Spizzirri for VDZ, why?

Because VDZ works like that, he’s often strong against the strong and weak against the weak; he loves pace and when the pressure isn’t on him. Against Fonseca he was so comfortable from the baseline—he can redirect play without giving up too many angles, and he did it beautifully. Add in a huge serving performance (I’ve never seen him this effective on first serve while making almost no double faults) and you get a really great match. I’m not forgetting he got broken in both sets and had to make a small comeback—I’m implying that even with a monstrous match from him, he was far from flawless. And that’s the danger for tomorrow: against Fonseca he had rhythm, speed, and zero pressure since everyone was watching Fonseca. Now it’s a whole different match against the qualifier Spizzirri, who already has good indoor numbers. He still has to prove it on the main tour, but it’s within his range. He battled in qualies, especially in the first round, before beating Blockx and following up against Martinez. Not massive wins, but the guy already has three victories, he’s solid on this surface, he won’t shy away from a baseline fight, and he’s pretty crafty. I think VDZ will have to take the initiative a bit more without the same high tempo as in R1, and that could bother him. It’s also his specialty to disappoint when he’s expected to deliver—after such a serving performance I can totally see him hitting 8 doubles and breaking himself tomorrow, but that’s still speculative. If we base it on his R1 level and what he can do indoors, he’s well above Spizzirri, but given his odds you really need to be certain that’s the case. I get backing VDZ when he’s an underdog; I’m less on board with doing it when he’s a big favorite.