The question arises again..

When Mpetshi is at very short odds, should we leave him alone or lay him because it’s often value?

We’re looking at the same scenario as in the first round, since Mpetshi is a heavy favorite in this matchup. That was already the case against Ruusuvuori and I laid him—rightly so, given the odds and the final result, in my opinion. He went through two tiebreaks and won one of them before breaking early in the second set; no doubt his serve is dialed in and it’s basically up to him whether he gets broken or not. He’s going to be a pain in the ass to face indoors again this year. Even so, he had to save 4 break points and grind through the TBs; even if you give him the edge there, to me it’s decided on fine margins that don’t justify such a short price. I’m seeing the same thing in this second round: our Frenchman looks to open around 1.50, and even if you don’t really want to bet against him in these conditions, you’ve got to think hard about it. Basilashvili isn’t necessarily my guy; picturing him eating aces all match with little he can do isn’t great. He runs on motivation, and I’m not sure playing Mpetshi is going to fire him up. He already lost to the Frenchman this year, but he generated a bunch of break points on clay. Conditions are different, and of course Mpetshi is the favorite, but the Frenchman will likely have to go through one or more tiebreaks to win—and if it’s obvious to you that he takes those, I disagree! I liked Basilashvili’s first-round match, and that’s been the case for weeks now—he’s been pretty locked in since the Asian swing, and I think he can come up clutch in this kind of match.