The underdog has value.

When you compare these players’ two matches today, well, the favorite isn’t necessarily the favorite.

What a match from Spizzirri tonight against VDZ!! The match of his life, plain and simple. Close to 90% first serves and a 6-0 in the second set—he completely rattled VDZ and it was beautiful to watch. I had some doubts about his ability to take the initiative against a good defender/counter-puncher, but he was so in the zone that everything he tried came off. It’s hard to really judge a performance like that because he just played a sensational match, and reproducing something like that isn’t easy. On the other hand, with the confidence he’s built up since the qualies and with this win, I think he’ll ride it and have a much higher average level than usual. I expect him to be strong and hard to beat tomorrow—another tricky match for FAA. The Canadian almost fell into the Dzumhur trap today and admits the Asia-to-indoor hard transition is tough. First round won, and with this strong start he could also loosen up tomorrow and be more precise. Indoors is his domain, and with the ATP Finals in sight he’s set himself a great goal (which doesn’t seem to weigh on him too much, unlike Musetti). As for the match-up, I really like Spizzirri’s profile—he’s good on the counter and at redirecting play, and he’s got what it takes to bother Felix from the baseline!