Can Ugo Ruin the Scandinavian Party?

He has not yet found his best tennis, but here he is in the final...

Indeed, Rune was about to make the H2H record 6-0 against Humbert. And then, Rune had a horrible injury, as I'm sure most of you have seen or heard about now. I don't want to judge Humbert's performance too hard in that match, cause it's really a bad matchup for him. Ruud once again played a good match to beat Shapovalov. That's three solid performances in a row against Cilic, Korda, and Shapovalov - not bad at all. I will say that I found Shapovalov a bit "off" as he had been the entire tournament. He fought well for periods but was unable to convert at the right times, and ultimately, Ruud just wore him down.

Ruud has been the best player this tournament, I think nobody will disagree with that. However, now we are in the final, and he still needs to cross the finish line! I think this matchup is decent for Humbert; it's much better than it was against Rune. Against Ruud, Ugo will have a bit more time to play his game, and that's important (Rune completely takes away that part by taking the ball super early and playing with a lot of aggression). And while Ruud has great endurance and can be a pest to "put away", he does not have the same speed as Rune. He also plays further back behind the baseline, which will open up some more angles for Humbert to use, as long as he doesn't allow Ruud to consistently get a lot of depth. From a mental aspect, I will give the advantage to Ugo. He has a really good record in finals; I find him able to play smart tennis without a lot of risk, minimizing his unforced errors. Ruud has been mentally solid so far, but has also had the advantage of facing three opponents who play attacking tennis and can become quite erratic, something he was able to capitalize on. I found Ruud's attitude really good the entire week, a lot of positivity, he is putting a lot of effort! Lastly, I want to add that I like the fact that Humbert has not spent a lot of time on court. Physicality is such a big part of the game against Ruud, and since he is rather fresh, he should have what it takes to battle deep into a third set here if needed...