Intertwined fates

Diallo is on a real downswing after an exceptional start to the season; FAA is the opposite, with an excellent end to the season!

Great title for FAA in Brussels; he really struggled in his early rounds with some issues adapting after a grueling tournament in China. But once he found his rhythm he was the best player in the tournament by far. The scoreline against Lehecka might make it seem like it was tight before he pulled away, but in reality he even deserved to win that match in straight sets. Better on serve than his opponent, more resilient in rallies, and sharper moving forward—this is prime FAA. Indoor suits him perfectly, and with the ATP Finals as his target he’s got a fixed point in the distance to help him stay the course; he’s not putting negative pressure on himself, and that’s why it takes something really big to beat him. A few months ago Diallo fit into that category and I would’ve taken a shot, but the Canadian is feeling the effects at this end of the season—he’s paying for his strong start to the year. Last week he lost to a good Duckworth and took an MTO for an abdominal issue; if I’m not mistaken, it’s an injury he’s been carrying for a bit. Even if that injury isn’t too serious, in terms of his game he’s not hurting opponents the way he used to; he’s back to being 100% reliant on his serve. Seeing FAA’s performance against Lehecka, I don’t really see how Diallo can stop him from winning. He’d need to be imperious on serve (possible on fast indoor) and for FAA to struggle to adapt to this tournament’s conditions (which are quite similar to Brussels). Given FAA’s confidence I also give him the edge in tiebreaks—Diallo would have to squeeze through the eye of a needle.