A duel of serves and doubts

Aces, grimaces, and surely a (or several) tie break on the menu!

Another not-so-obvious match between two players lacking confidence. They were both injured recently and are on their way back, but one has a bit of an edge over the other. Indeed, without being brilliant, Berrettini has been playing tournaments for a month now, while Popyrin only returned last week after back problems, and he clearly showed that he wasn't fully ready. After a good first set, he completely collapsed physically and was completely dominated by Korda. On the Italian side, his physical form is there, but tennis-wise, he feels he's struggling. He's still very imprecise with his forehand, which was a huge weapon in his prime. Regarding the tournament's history, Matteo's is excellent, notably with a final, while Popyrin has never won in 3 participations. Matteo even beat him here in 2021.

The bookmakers give us Matteo as the favorite at around 1.65, which seems logical once we've said all that. And what do we do?