Not the match of the day!

Between a local wild card and an Argentine who might be injured and is allergic to hard courts, it doesn’t exactly make you dream…

Carabelli took advantage of a fantastic spring to break into the top 50, and since then it’s been… tougher!

He’s a hardcore clay-court specialist and seeing him here feels almost incongruous; yet he nearly won his R1 last week against Kovacevic before retiring with a knee issue. That makes it three retirements since the summer, and our Argentine friend doesn’t seem fully fit. On the other side, Misolic is also going through a tougher stretch after being very active and effective on clay over the summer. He had a decent Stockholm, and here he’ll be playing at home at a level he’s rarely competed at—an excellent chance to pick up big points to stay in the top 100 before the Australian Open.

The books are offering 1.5 on the Austrian, which seems logical given the Argentine’s level and form indoors. Even so, I find that really short to trust him—he’s not the most reliable in a high-stakes match, and he’s facing an opponent who, if recovered, has the tools to hang in on a surface that isn’t all that fast.