Size matters..

40 cm difference between Baez and Opelka, but each has their own strengths!

Nice clash of styles, and naturally Opelka has the edge indoors with the quality of his serve. The American didn’t like the conditions in China at all; physically he can have big dips, but this week indoors should be fine. He’s coming out of qualies after beating a local and then outclassing VDZ—that second win is impressive since the Dutchman is a good returner who can make this type of profile play. Opelka is going to be a pain to beat this week! He already reached the semifinals here in 2023, and like Mpetshi who won last year, you can put him in the dark-horse category—their profile is just nasty to face in these conditions. His first round is manageable, too: Baez seems to be feeling the end-of-season strain, and indoor tennis really isn’t his thing. He just took a spanking from Royer in Brussel, though the Frenchman’s match was clinical—tactically he leaned into his strengths to give him no time, and Opelka doesn’t do that as well, or rather he does it differently. But I think with just his serve quality and some solidity from the baseline, he has enough to beat this version of Baez, who doesn’t look all that scary right now, especially given how quick the courts are. Personally I don’t believe in Baez, but maybe I’m being too harsh on him?