A fourth in a row?

Has the German recovered enough to dominate this opponent he's done so well against in 2025? Some answers below!

The German picked up a new physical issue at the Six Kings Slam and clearly couldn’t defend his chances against Fritz; he even thanked the American for “sparing” him because he couldn’t hit his forehand normally… it’s not the first time this has happened, and he’s generally had quite a few physical problems this year. There’s real uncertainty about his level before this first round. We know how good he can be indoors, but he needs to be at 100% for that to be the case. On the other side, Fearnley looks pretty good and, aside from his match against Ymer where he couldn’t really compete due to an eye issue, he seems comfortable with his tennis and is a true indoor specialist.

They’ve played each other 3 times in 2025, with 3 straightforward wins for the German on hard courts.

Even so, between Fearnley’s form, which I judge to be rather good, the fact it’s an R1 for Zverev, and the doubts around his fitness, it seems to me the value is on the Englishman’s side!