A favorite who doesn’t close

We’ve talked quite a bit internally about Giron with the other TM analysts, and we’re pretty much in agreement on his case

The takeaway is pretty clear with Giron: he’s playing good tennis but can’t finish matches. He tightens up at the end of sets and starts pushing the ball even though he dominates the rest of the time. After a strong start against Fokina and Shapovalov he collapsed, and that’s a pattern we’ll be watching in his next matches. That said, I’m not forgetting he lost to very good players too—the overall level of play was very high and positive. He now faces a more manageable opponent in Altmaier; the German isn’t winning matches at the moment. He did post some big results indoors earlier this year, but right now he looks a bit out of form. Still, we know he can raise his level at big tournaments—usually that’s more in the Slams, but I’d also include the Masters 1000s in that category, even if his track record in Paris is thin with just one appearance. With Giron it’s the opposite: he’s got a very good record in Paris with two round-of-16s, and his recent losses have only been to top players, which isn’t surprising given how solid he is indoors. On recent form I’ve got him well above Altmaier. As for the conditions we’ve seen so far in qualifying, it’s not excessively fast and the bounce stays low—the mix looks perfect once again for Giron! I’m a bit worried if he has to serve for the match or play a tiebreak; if it comes to that I think you should lay him, but I’m hopeful he can make the difference before then.