Daddy Popy

Popyrin is up 3/1 against Bublik, I didn't expect that!

Sure, stats are great but they don’t tell the whole story—especially with Bublik! The Kazakh is so dependent on whether he actually feels like playing that looking back at the past without knowing his mindset at a given moment is almost impossible. I remember a stretch where he was basically tanking every match on repeat without giving a damn. So I’m going to take this H2H with a grain of salt, because Bublik’s level swings massively and you have to treat each match with him as a one-off. He’s coming off a good tournament in Vienna with two solid wins and a relatively tight loss to Sinner; that alone is already a positive. Another important detail is that this week we’re at an indoor Masters 1000 and the season’s winding down—it’s a big event and he should be motivated/focused. I’m expecting a good Bublik. The conditions aren’t super lively but they’re honestly fine for him. Watch out for his opponent though: Popyrin loves the Masters 1000s and often magically finds his best level. Last year he knocked out Berrettini and then Medvedev before narrowly losing to Khachanov—I’m still wary of him. But he’s not in a good run right now; since the US Open he’s only played Stockholm and Vienna, two losses with a level that was really not great. He should improve as he gets matches under his belt, but right now Bublik looks well above.