Who Will Take the Lead?

Tien won in Washington and Rublev won shortly after in Cincinnati...

Both players had a very easy first round with opponents who played terribly. Sadly, that makes it a bit hard to gauge just how good or bad they were. Borges was unable to penetrate Tien's defense for most of the match and was leaking some wild errors. Fearnley, who had looked good for some matches, was a disaster in every regard, especially his second serve... he double-faults more than he puts it in! As for the matchup between Rublev and Tien, it all depends on who can take control of the match and dictate. Yes, I know that's the case for many matchups, but it's especially important here. If Tien can work his patterns, he will lock Rublev in uncomfortable positions around the court, preventing him from doing any significant damage with his forehand and instead having to chase balls around. As I said earlier, Borges was not good today, but Tien was also very good at isolating him in his backhand corner. Rublev's path to victory is quite simple... avoiding getting dragged into long rallies, instead focusing on doing early damage with the forehand. I do have more worries for Rublev ahead of this match... he still has not been able to have a really good match ever since his USO loss to Felix. Meanwhile, Tien went on to have a fantastic Asian Swing, took a bit of rest, and won his first match on indoor hardcourt in straight sets, looking pretty good. So, we have a Tien that has been getting better, while I think Rublev has gone the opposite way. While I respect Rublev's ceiling still, I think there is only one way I can look if the odds are anything like I think they will be...