Is momentum everything?

Big difference in form between our two French players—Cazaux starts as the favorite, but Mannarino is a specialist at dismantling opponents’ games!

We thought we’d see Mannarino bounce back after a nice US swing with a much more convincing eye test! He had a few good matches during the Asian swing but nothing amazing, and since then he’s fizzled out with two losses at indoor events. A straight-set loss to Bertola, a Swiss local who was on fire in qualies—and especially with Mannarino coming off the UTS and not expecting to play again so soon—let’s say that one’s acceptable. Then he loses to Hanfmann at Bercy, another really one-sided score, but the German’s in form and it’s no surprise he lost—though the scoreline is rough. Maybe he’s still struggling to finish the season, both physically and motivation-wise. One thing’s for sure: his record in Metz is awful, almost all first-round exits. The court isn’t very fast and the bounce is middling—not what he prefers. He’s facing another Frenchman, but one who’s in much better shape. Cazaux finished the Asian swing well with a Challenger title; he was cooked in Almaty, then had a decent-but-nothing-crazy run at Bercy. He lost to Fokina, who was honestly playing really well, and you can’t blame Cazaux much for that match. I find him particularly strong mentally, and obviously he’s got that big serve. The courts in Metz are reputed to be slow, but watching matches from last year, I feel like they’re a bit quicker than Bercy this season. In terms of the matchup, Cazaux doesn’t shy away from baseline battles—that’s a good thing against Manna—and he likes to come forward, which suits him. He didn’t really have the chance to do that against Fokina, who played too fast. Manna can lull a match to sleep and find a good level again, but given his form and his history here, I don’t see a real reason to believe in it.