The magic recipe

Quite a few players have figured out how to play against Moutet, but the Frenchman is tenacious

Target Moutet’s backhand and follow it to the net—that’s the theoretical way to get the edge over Coco. It’s simple but devilishly effective; the trick is doing it smartly, otherwise you’ll just get passed. I like this matchup for Vukic only when he’s in top form—serve-and-volley is something he does naturally, and even though he’s clearly worse than Coco from the baseline, he doesn’t exactly shy away from playing. But I really want to stress the physical side, because if he’s even a touch off there, it all falls apart: every approach will be a bit slower, and if his serve isn’t lethal, he’ll get dragged into patterns that are too demanding for him. I’m a Vukic backer, but I’m not convinced by his recent level—I feel like he’s been a lot more labored in quite a few matches lately. There was a good set against Fritz, but then 6-2 after, and that’s without even mentioning the match against Atmane with a bunch of breaks and de-breaks—that’s not the prime Vukic I like to back. Slower conditions too—that’ll matter—and Moutet clearly has a real shot here. A semifinal for the Frenchman last year, and he’s still fresh and motivated to finish his year strong, with the possibility of getting called up to the Davis Cup as reinforcement; it’s not the time to fade! Maybe a fast start from Vukic before dropping in intensity as the match goes on?