The Hammer vs The Rower

A combo of serve, power, and mentality on Berrettini’s side against intelligence, tactics, and the science of the game on Tien’s side

A good impression is emerging from Berrettini as the matches go by—some really sluggish outings, but then much more polished ones after that. I think Berrettini is slowly ramping up. I’m repeating myself, but it makes sense: he skipped Paris because he didn’t want to play back-to-back, and sure enough this week he looks sharp, with a real hunger to go all the way. With Bublik’s loss, the draw has opened up even more and we’ve basically got a final before the final. The winner knows they’re giving themselves a great shot at making the final after that. First meeting between Tien and Berrettini—it’s always tricky to anticipate because the usual patterns can vary from player to player. We know Tien will be in defensive mode most of the time; his aim is to work the points well, hit low slices, add shape, move Berrettini around, and never give him the same ball twice. He can’t let himself get hammered by the forehand and be on the back foot too much—the whole question is whether he’ll be good enough in that area to break down his opponent. Tien does like having time to construct his points; he doesn’t like being rushed, and stat-wise he doesn’t have a great record against Berrettini-type profiles. On the flip side, the Italian does pretty well against players similar to Tien, because what he hates are guys who can attack him and stop him from dictating. In the end, getting ground down isn’t as dangerous for him as someone coming fast and hard at his backhand. I still think Tien has the higher ceiling this season. Berrettini isn’t back to his best yet and he’s not the favorite in this matchup, but there’s clear progress and mentally he’s locked in for this tournament—I love what he’s shown so far. Long story short, I’m leaning his way, but I’ll need good odds; otherwise I’ll pass.