Hanfmann, the Serve Bot

Can he upset Djokovic this time?

At first glance, why not? They played a tough three-setter recently in Shanghai, and Hanfmann's form has been excellent ever since. His serving numbers are absolutely elite, up there with the top players and serve bots. And for Djokovic, it was a little bit like expected... he keeps holding his serve very easily (he is also serving at an absolutely elite level). However, he also struggles to break his opponents; it's not like the Novak of the past who gave out scorelines that Jannik does now instead. I would say that his wins are more dominant than the scorelines make it look, but that is not a lot of help if you have his -Games HCP ;) It still feels like this hasn't been properly adjusted in his handicap spreads in fast conditions like this, especially in best of 3 in an ATP 250. Despite all this, I reckon that this rematch might favor Novak a bit. Hanfmann is more dependent on his serve than Djokovic is in this matchup, and now, having already faced him once recently, Novak might have a better read on his serve. It was also Novak's second match since the US Open, in brutal conditions, whereas Hanfmann had played many matches in the Asian Swing already. Sometimes, the expectations get set a bit too high if there was a huge battle in a previous meeting (an example would be Alcaraz vs Sinner in RG and then Wimbledon). So yes, I listed some things that could potentially favour Novak to win this one a bit more easily... but will it be enough to justify the low odds we surely will get on his side, despite his declining return game...?