How do I do it?

De Minaur has never beaten Alcaraz and I can't really tell what he can change, unfortunately..

In their 4 meetings, ADM has still taken a set twice; he’s not starting completely from scratch, but it’s not much. Defensively, Alcaraz is way too quick to get rushed; ADM doesn’t have the power, so he’ll have to follow to the net or switch to a completely different pattern, using his backhand slice for instance. The conditions aren’t as fast as they used to be at this tournament; last year it had already slowed down and that seems to be the case again this year. I watched a few practices and there are plenty of rallies. Perfect pace for Alcaraz, who will also be hungry after his quick loss in Paris; he arrived early and he’s training well. For ADM, there are a few positives this season: last year he was so deep in the Masters race that he showed up spent physically and mentally for his first. This time he paced himself in the last tournaments, he didn’t have major stress, and he also has last year’s experience to help him manage things better! He’ll fight with what he’s got, make balls, and try to be aggressive when it’s time to go; hard to believe in it, but you can count on him to battle. This match is on Alcaraz’s racket as usual, but we saw against Norrie that the Spaniard has off days he can’t turn around; it was obvious against the Brit, both in his game and his attitude. Pre-match it’s almost impossible to predict when he’ll play that poorly; you mainly need to be ready to lay him live if you quickly see he’s not having a great day. That would pretty much be my only angle to bet against him.