It All Comes Down To This...

Could Musetti defy the odds and achieve his "dream"?

5 points. That's what Musetti is lacking to catch up to Felix for the last spot. And I think it's safe to say that he'll have to work harder for these 5 points than he ever imagined. He has fought well and shown a lot of spirit to reach the final here in Athens, where conditions can be quite challenging for him, so credit to Lorenzo. However, now the final end-boss awaits... Djokovic. I mentioned it plenty of times in my previews for Novak this tournament: he might not be winning with crazy scorelines anymore, but he keeps his own serve so well in these kinds of conditions. And in his semifinal, he was able to get an easier win against Hanfmann than in their battle in Shanghai. Musetti is coming from huge drama himself, having to save a match point against Korda. Not only is Musetti fighting for the last spot in the ATP Finals, he is also desperate to win a title, even "just a 250" - it's been many years now, and we saw the loss against Tabilo in the Chengdu final did hit him hard. It has been a bit nervous for the last weeks, however, now he comes into a final as a big underdog, just barely scraping by in the previous rounds... could this serve as a good thing for him, lessening the pressure? Well, perhaps a little bit... but will it be enough? While this matchup might be quite decent for Musetti on clay, it changes completely when we get off the red dirt. They've faced three times on hardcourt and once on grass, and Musetti has not been able to win a set, with a lot of lopsided scorelines. Sure, some of them were a few years back. We still have the 6-2, 6-2 in Miami this year, as well as the 6-4, 7-6, 6-4 in Wimbledon last year. If you start to look "under the hood", it kind of makes sense. They both serve well, but Djokovic's serving numbers are elite. Djokovic can rush Musetti in these conditions, whereas Musetti can not return the favor... and that's a huge deal. Someone like Sinner can stand up against Djokovic since he can play the lightning-speed tempo baseline exchanges without blinking first, and with his youth and movement, there are not a lot of answers for Novak anymore. However, in this matchup, Djokovic will be able to rush Musetti straight away with a deep return, which is one of Musetti's biggest challenges on faster surfaces (we saw Felix do it over and over recently). Sadly, I think Lorenzo's path to victory is quite limited. Could he somehow extend baseline rallies over and over and wear Djokovic down? Well, it won't be easy in a best of 3 in fast conditions and a Djokovic that has not spent that much time on court. Apart from that, getting to the tiebreaks and playing them really well? Those are the options I see, and I'm not so optimistic...