7th Alca-Fritz in history

And it’s already 5–1 for Carlito, with his only defeat a Laver Cup match. What makes Carlito so often have the last word?

We all know it: the American’s level depends heavily on his form, because his solidity in rallies is one of his main strengths. Even if he finishes the season a bit worn down, he often shows up here in good shape and in conditions he likes. His first match against Musetti was full of aggression and let him (re)find his bearings. A few depth issues on the forehand, and Musetti was troubled by the American’s aggression. That’s good, because our friend Carlito doesn’t like it when things are too fast. And at the same time, he transcends himself when he plays Sinner. And at the same time, he can get tangled up when he has a bit too much time. His performance was pretty much perfect, with that classic little dip at the end of set 1. So I think we’ll have two guys in form, with a slight edge for Fritzy, since the conditions suit his game better, and I’ll also note he showed a good level on return in his first match. It’s generally a battle of aggression between these two, and I like the confidence the American has built, whereas Carlito’s season endings are too often disappointing. Their last meeting at Six Kings was on very slow indoor hard and was still an exhibition. The one before that, Fritz was running on fumes with a thigh injury. Before that it’s the Laver Cup, and before that a tight four-setter in the Wimbledon semis. Here, we’re right on medium/fast hard as the index indicates, which could allow Fritz to be both effective on serve and have a bit of time in the rallies. After that, you know Carlito like I do: if he shifts into second gear, nobody keeps up. But I do think it’s worth taking a small over here.