An Italian on point

Musetti wanted to be in Turin but I'm afraid it's already turning into a nightmare..

The quick turnaround was always going to be tricky for Musetti and it showed—he had heavy legs against Fritz today and wasn’t feeling the ball. Not yet at 100% and no rest day, he’s going to have to dig deep to find the resources to try to beat an ADM who knows Musetti is worn down; if the Australian has any sense, he’ll make the match last. Make it last without becoming passive, though—give Musetti time and space and he’s excellent at maneuvering the rallies; what he doesn’t like is being rushed and attacked quickly, like in today’s match against Fritz. The American served bombs and, above all, was proactive on return and in the rallies. He didn’t want to get dragged into long patterns at the risk of getting lulled to sleep, so he hit big and the score could have been even harsher. A bit of a lack of clarity from Musetti in the interview saying it came down to just one break in each set—yeah, okay... I did like his start, though: with the slightly higher bounce he can put a lot of shape on the forehand and return from deep. Against ADM he’ll have more looks on return and be under less pressure too; that’s the kind of matchup we generally like, but this time I’m afraid the opponent’s profile might work against him. The key is how quickly Musetti can recover physically. That’s my biggest worry, because otherwise, game-wise, I think he can manage in this kind of match. ADM played pretty well in his first match against Alcaraz, but every time the Spaniard upped it, that was that—it’s a tough matchup for him. If I compare tomorrow’s match to something recent for him, I’d mention his match against Khachanov: not exactly the same, but ADM doesn’t like having his time taken away either, and we saw against Khacha that he was comfortable in that kind of baseline matchup. Very solid, in good physical shape, hard to hit through and smart offensively—tomorrow is supposed to be easier for him. Historically it’s 3–1 for Musetti, but two wins on clay, which makes sense, so I can’t give him a big H2H edge because of that. I’m expecting a match where both players can impose their games in turn and be more in control than in their first match.