Here We Go... Again!

Vienna, Paris, and now the ATP Finals...

Let's start by saying that the results in the two recent matches were basically as different as they could be. Zverev pushed Sinner deep into a third set in Vienna, which led to hopes of another good battle in Paris. Well, it was not to be... Zverev had a grueling battle in the semifinals against his nemesis, Medvedev, and was unable to turn it up the next day. As he said himself, even a slight dip in form due to fatigue gets heavily punished by someone as consistently elite and intense as Jannik. That means that even just a slight drop-off can be the difference between having a somewhat decent scoreline and taking a 6-2, 6-1 against Sinner. Zverev seems more optimistic about his physicality now, saying he felt great against Shelton and also having some days of rest. They've both played one match each so far, both of them having rather straightforward wins against opponents that they are comfortable against. Sinner was, as usual, exceptional, slightly aided by a hampered Felix. Something I liked about Zverev's performance was his forehand... we are expecting his serve to be really good in these conditions (although 81% first serves IN is really good). We know that one of Zverev's vulnerabilities is the forehand (in the words of Griekspoor: "Everything to the forehand"). When Zverev has been really good, it has been when he is comfortable with his forehand. One of the best examples of this was actually in 2021 in the ATP Finals, when he was unplayable! Now, that's just a sample size from a single match against Shelton. Even though Shelton is a very aggressive player, facing Sinner is a completely different task, since he combines that aggression with a rapid pace.

Who will benefit most from the faster conditions here, compared to the slower ones they had in Vienna and Paris? Initially, it feels like Zverev is the one who will benefit the most; he is the better server... and that means fewer rallies against the best and most consistent baseline player in the world. However, it also means that it's harder for him to make an impact on return! If Sinner can hold his serve really well in these conditions, he can use his slight edge in returning and from the baseline to perhaps get that decisive break or win tiebreaks. Do we get another competitive battle, a Sinner "blowout" or perhaps something in between this time...?