A small glimmer of hope

De Minaur can still theoretically qualify, but mentally he already seems far away..

The curse goes on for De Minaur, who still hasn’t won a match at the ATP Finals in 5 tries. His loss to Musetti was even crueler than the others: he got dominated for a full set before taking over physically, he came so close to the double break in the final set, and I think at 5–2 with serve to follow he closes it out. But he tightened up and Musetti found a last burst to raise his level and somehow pull it off—brutal for ADM, and he wasn’t kind to himself in the press conference. He obviously blames himself and you can feel the impact; he just can’t be ruthless against top players, and I’m afraid it’ll be the same tomorrow. First because he’ll think about it if he gets ahead, and especially because on the other side you’ve got a red-hot Fritz. The American deserved the win against Alcaraz but collapsed physically—he isn’t a killer either, but it happens less often than with ADM. He really impressed me in his first two matches: he’s completely figured out how to play in these conditions, brings a lot of pace and aggression—more than usual—and that’s the right recipe against ADM too. I’m not too worried about his fitness either: he’s had a day off and ADM spent a lot as well. You’d really need another three-set, three-hour battle for the Aussie to pull ahead physically, but we saw against Musetti that even then he could still lose. I like him, but I think something just isn’t clicking for him at this tournament, whereas Fritz is very dangerous; logic says the American should win.