Woe to the vanquished

The loser is eliminated and the winner advances from the group; the math is simple

It’s basically a little final within this group to decide who will finish behind Sinner. I have to say it’s well deserved for both players, and I know we’re in for a big battle in this nice night session. Zverev really impressed me against Sinner—he’s averaging 82% on first serve, which is just monstrous in these conditions too. I think with the level he showed in that last match, only Sinner or Alcaraz could have beaten him. He’ll obviously need to reproduce that performance, but he’s been on a great run for a few weeks now, building momentum and finishing strong. It’s exactly the same with FAA, except his hot streak has lasted longer and he’s not dropping in intensity—the comedown will probably come next year. He said his calf injury wasn’t an issue before facing Shelton, and he didn’t lie—no visible problem, and it held up for three sets at good intensity. I can’t say he’s diminished after a full match; I’m expecting him at his best physically and tennis-wise. If I have to judge purely on the start of the tournament, I put Zverev slightly ahead, but both are playing very well. Looking at their past meetings, Zverev leads 8–4—it was one-way traffic in the early years, but it’s more balanced now, and FAA won their last match. That was at the US Open, and we had an average version of Zverev, unlike FAA who played the tournament of his life (or close to it). The matchup isn’t one-sided; it’s dictated by serve quality, obviously, but it’s the whole package. In rallies, you have to gauge how Zverev’s forehand is feeling, and right now it looks very good. With his 80% first-serve rate against Shelton, FAA could very well compete on serve while holding up from the baseline. Personally, I’ve got a better feeling about Zverev, but I don’t want to knock FAA too much because he’s playing at an excellent level too—the margin will be thin.