Felix in the making

Hampered in his first match, no one was betting on ADM to make it out of the group, and yet he’s just done it!

Felix is really ramping up in this tournament; he was already good against Shelton, but his match against Zverev impressed me. I saw his prime version again like at the US Open: unplayable on serve, sharp on return, mobile, ruthless—his performance was truly excellent. He was also clinical and brave in the pressure moments, which you can’t say about Zverev, who was just pushing the forehand. A superb Felix who’s in great physical and mental shape—this is his best version, and I think Carlito will have to play his best tennis tomorrow or he could get caught out. I can’t say we’ve seen prime Alcaraz so far; there have been some excellent sets but not really a complete match. The one against Musetti needs context too, since Lorenzo was cooked after a set. I’m left wanting more, let’s say—I’ve seen some excellent things, but also a lot of rushing and some adjustments needed. I can’t write Carlito off just like that—we know this type of player: once the tournament really gets going, they’re not the same. He should raise his level again tomorrow, especially since he no longer has the pressure of finishing No. 1—it’s official, and to be fair he talked about it a lot. As for the H2H, it’s 4–3 for the Spaniard, but he’s won the last four meetings quite decisively. My arguments to “back” FAA are that those last four matches were in slow conditions (x2 Indian Wells, Roland Garros, the Olympics in Paris). It also wasn’t the same version of Felix—he’s found his tennis again this year, and now that he has, he’s more likely to hang in there, especially since he’s particularly good in fast indoor conditions. He’s absolutely not the favorite in this match, but given the matches and the season he’s having, plus Alcaraz’s little lapses here and there, I think there’s something there.