Welcome to the Big 2 era

At just 22 and 24 years old, these two tennis prodigies have already faced each other 18 times, including 14 times in semifinals or finals, and in 6 finals this season. Which one will prevail this time?

Often, you can sense that one of them is just a bit more dominant. Rare are the times when they’ve both played, like at Roland Garros, each at their best level. Today, indoors and in Turin, you naturally lean toward a Jannik Sinner win. I shared a graph on X showing the trend in Sinner’s first-serve % since the US Open. I unfortunately didn’t see their final at the Six Kings Slam, but I really get the feeling Jannik has made the gains needed to take up the mantle. The first-serve %, the net game, the drop shots... It’s not perfect yet, not yet executed with Carlito’s flair, but you could say he’s already made his game a bit less “predictable.” And anyway, indoors on a not-slow court, this evolution toward a more varied game matters a bit less given how effective his bulldozer style is. He moves on this Turin court as if he were levitating. Carlito’s going to have to tackle a mountain, but he’s climbed plenty already. He comes in, for me, in perfect conditions: the No. 1 spot, a few grind-it-out matches in the group stage, and a simply monstrous semifinal. To quote him: “It’s simple, I felt like I could do whatever I wanted...” If I had to bet on this encounter that will close out a season at its pinnacle, it would be on a match between the two best players in the world at the height of their powers.