The first one...

Aaaaaaaah... my first 2026 analysis, here it is! So happy to be back in action, friends! And a little Dzumhur vs Nuno, what could be better?!

A Bosnian we now know by heart and who treated us in 2025, up against Nuno’s resilience. The first thing that comes to mind here is Nuno + Australian sun. The Portuguese player has now gotten us used to seeing him well tuned during the first two weeks before arriving in the heat at the AO. I think there’s a kind of mix between the conditions and the tournament that he enjoys, because Nuno is very lively at the AO. The problem is, we’re not there yet, and these first two tournaments are going to be important. As a good Latin who takes it seriously, spending time at home with family is surely hugely important for Nuno to recharge both physically and mentally. An off-season that’s even more important for him because he disappointed in 2025. His wins were a bit labored, explained more by his mental resilience than by the quality of his tennis. We know he doesn’t like it when things go a bit too fast, and that he can be a bit slow to get going. He sometimes plays a bit too much in reaction. It’s like he waits to be shaken up to find that extra motivation and sharpen his tennis (a trait Damir also has). Against Dzumhur, he’ll have time to get himself organized. But the Bosnian can drive you crazy. Now, if we had to make a guess without knowing what work they’ve done during the off-season, I’d lean toward the idea that the Bosnian might need a bit more time to get into gear. His game needs rhythm, and Hong Kong has a reputation for being quite fast (to be confirmed). And even within his season, Dzum often takes time to get into his matches, and can also drift out of them for an entire set. With Borges a strong favorite at 1.44, I’d lean either towards an over on games, or a negative handicap on Nuno. Let’s go check the odds...