Watch out for Sweeny!

This guy would make Alex De Minaur proud...

Well, you can feel just how comfortable this guy is on Australian hardcourts. He has played 422 matches on hardcourt, 75 matches on all other surfaces combined (Medvedev would love this guy). I saw him really frustrate Fearnley in the opening round, who had just started to overhit after he got too many balls back on his side of the court. He covers the court really well and can extend points over and over... and hits the ball really flat, enough to bother a lot of players. As for Opelka, he is someone who really tends to perform during this opening part of the season, the Australian Swing. His serve is nasty to handle on these courts, especially since players tend to lack rhythm on return/from the baseline at the start of the season - facing Opelka early on does not exactly help with that. I mentioned in my previews of Opelka at the end of last year that I feel like he has not found the same level he had a few years back, before the injuries. Lower % of first serve in, more vulnerable on the second serve... and somehow the return and overall baseline game has gotten worse (the bar was already set low to begin with).

As for the matchup... Opelka actually has great stats against Counter Punchers, especially when he is a medium-sized favorite. They struggle to extend rallies due to the quality of his serve and his ability to end points within the first shots. Then, they are a bit more vulnerable on their own serve, which tends to be on the weaker/average side (allowing Opelka to sometimes connect with a few returns). As you can tell, I'm quite impressed by Sweeny so far, but this matchup could be a lot harder against a much more powerful player who can end the rallies (one way or another). Still, Sweeny has the advantage of having great familiarity with the courts, as well as matches under his belt... but Opelka has played here before with good results, so perhaps it's not that much of an advantage!