Cover yourselves...

...it's gonna send some heavy shots!

What a match-up for this very first tournament. Madison Keys shone last year on Australian soil by winning the Australian Open, and she started here with a fairly comfortable match against her compatriot Kessler. Despite a lot of unforced errors, this first round allowed her to find her bearings. True to her style, Keys quickly smothered her opponent, almost from the get-go, leaving very little space between two thunderous forehands.

The left-hander Diana Shnaider has still never beaten her. Statistically, her performance against top-10 players over the course of her career remains very low, around 9%. Beyond the technical gap with the WTA elite, there is also, in my view, a real mental dimension in this kind of occasion, with a glass ceiling that’s still hard to break through. That said, her opening match showed a confident player, with an aggressive game well in place, after a more inconsistent 2025 season.

Another point to note: Madison Keys historically has more wins than losses against left-handers. The moneyline odds therefore become interesting, all the more so as she should correct some of the flaws seen in the first round and raise her level on serve. We’re heading towards a short-rally match, probably with few breaks, and an advantage for the American under these conditions.