Nice, Jérémy!

Oh, what a fine mess Jérem left me to analyze lol. What on earth am I going to be able to tell you that's new...

And of course, about the two players themselves, not much, but about their head‑to‑head, a lot more! And something tells me this is not necessarily the draw Bublik would have dreamed of for his return to official competition. But before talking about that, a quick look back at Bublik, because it seems important to remind you that he’s been on a mission since last season. Which one? The top‑10 mission! He fell just short at the end of the season, with some remarkable displays of focus in Paris indoors. He finished 11th in the world, and I’m inclined to believe him when he says that matters. Will he be ready for the first tournament of the year? I’m less sure. Hong Kong and Australia are far away. There’s the travel, the jet lag, sometimes the heat and humidity… And then after a season like his, with certainly the most serious approach he’s ever applied to his professional life, he must have taken a well‑earned, solid break with his wife, kids, family, and friends. He tells in a pretty funny way that he was a bit shocked when Medvedev told him he’d already be match‑ready for their exhibition in Saint Petersburg at the end of November. So let’s say he might be slightly in warm‑up mode for this first match, but that’s only a hypothesis. Considering his goal and his new professionalism, he could also show up razor‑sharp from the very first point. On the other hand, and this is where things get a bit tricky for me, on the other side of the net there’s someone he doesn’t really like playing. I watched the highlights of their three meetings, and it’s not easy for him. First, we’ve got the Davis Cup in 2022 in Glasgow. VDZ won in 3 sets, with both players highly motivated, and already some clear irritation from Bublik. Then we’ve got Basel 2024, on the super‑fast outside court. This time, Bublik smashes a racket and straight‑up retires in the third set at 4–0, basically just because he’s pissed off! Third and last match: Kitzbühel 2025, a 6–3 6–4 win for the Kazakh in the semifinals. VDZ had a break lead in the second set but gave it up at the end of the set before getting broken again right after. My take? The Kitzbühel result is explained by Bublik’s form: big season, big motivation, and he was coming off a title in Gstaad, so huge confidence. And on clay at altitude, his varied game has, in my opinion, more impact while still keeping an effective serve. Nice combo for him. Because otherwise, on hard courts, VDZ is a nightmare for him. Why? Because he neutralizes his serve and his drop shots really well. Bublik ends up with fewer solutions and gets frustrated. The thing not to forget is that VDZ has had lapses in each of their matches, and he had one yesterday too against Struff in the second set. So we can’t blindly trust him either, but I think we can calmly say that the match‑up is tricky for the Kazakh… Where does that leave us?