The cat and the mouse

While Loré has recently broken into the top 10 just as Rublo has dropped out of it, he’s becoming the bookmakers’ favorite even though Rublo seems to have the matchup in his favor. Who’s right?

I’m going to try to estimate all this a bit. Let’s start with Loré. The Italian has had a new status since last season. More consistent, more aggressive, manages his ups and downs better, has improved on hard courts. Ok. Here we are at the first tournament of the year. I haven’t seen the Italian at his prime yet, and for good reason: a first match that was a bit laboured against a good Etcheverry, but usually Loré gets the upper hand more easily. Then a routine match against Wong since the Hong Kong player didn’t have much fuel left in the tank. On the Russian side, we have a bit more to work with because he faces a local guy who comes in at full throttle and has a hell of a level when his body holds up. And what we really like about Rublo is when he manages that well mentally. After that, he handles Borges in a match that Jérémy analysed very well: the guy does everything just a bit better. What I note is: not a single mental lapse in that match either. If we add to that the fact that the conditions are perfect for him, it starts to carry some weight. In terms of match-up, we immediately think of Rublev’s aggressiveness against an Italian who needs time to set up and who is still a better player on clay. Now, the Russian doesn’t come to the net very often to finish points, and Loré turns a lot of defensive situations around thanks to his game. If the Italian manages to read Rublo’s trajectories well, he can defend him well enough, neutralize his power and make his game less effective. By the way, their only official meeting in 2020 in Dubai is absolutely not something to take into account because at that time, Loré was still a pure clay-courter. So a very interesting match with a match-up that could sometimes be favourable to one, sometimes to the other depending on the momentums. We’ll have to see who is better prepared mentally to handle them in the best way. I’ll just repeat that I find Rublev closer to his best level, and that Loré is not in the habit of being very aggressive on the return of serve, which is a pattern that can really bother the Russian in the continuation of the point.