An overconfident Sabalenka?

Smells like a Brisbane 2024 remake!

First ever bet on a final at TM. To be honest, I’m more on the team: a final is something you watch, not something you bet on. But why not step out of your comfort zone a bit and also go for this kind of market.

The context: we’ve got a world number 1 who’s cruising through the tournament without dropping a set, conceding on average five games per match, and defending her title as well as important ranking points. A Belarusian full of confidence, hitting hard and actually mixing up her game quite well. Always clutch in the key moments. Nothing very surprising, you might say. She’s aiming for a third title here to equal Pliskova’s record. That’s the personal and ambitious side of it. Being world number 1, finishing the year so far ahead of your rivals, it has to get a bit monotonous in the end… you need to set yourself new goals ;-)

Marta Kostyuk has been stunning in Brisbane, almost unplayable, to the point of demolishing one of the most complete players on the WTA tour, Jessica Pegula. What a masterclass this morning, and already against Andreeva as well. Powerful serve, as many aces as Saba in Brisbane, with an overall similar percentage of points won on serve. Variety, drop shots, lobs, blistering backhands into insane spots and an XXL court coverage. Pegula looked like she was wondering what she was doing out there. She was outplayed, and we’re talking about one of the very best defenders on tour. Marta has beaten three top players in a row while barely dropping crumbs: the world number 3, 6 and 9. Hats off.

So why is the market only giving her a 28% chance? The H2H is brutal, 4–0 for Sabalenka. Her massive confidence here and the back-to-back factor count as well. Fast surface, fairly high bounce! Logical, you’ll say… Two more elements come into play, one factual and one more subjective. In these four matches, there have been tie-breaks in 50% of them. The higher Marta climbs in the rankings, the more her game, when she’s in this Optimus Prime mode, bothers the Belarusian. Another thought, more personal: Brisbane 2024 is still at the back of my mind. She absolutely steamrolled the tournament only to take a nice little 6–0 in the final against the Kazakh Queen and lose in straight sets. The following year, with far more resistance and tight matches along the way, she won. I’ve often noticed this excess of confidence in a final after too “easy” a week. It’s subjective, of course, but I believe in it strongly, based on my viewing experience. With all that in mind, I find the odds a bit harsh on the Ukrainian, who by far has been playing the best tennis of any opponent the WTA leader has faced this week.